Validation

How to know if a business idea is viable: five tests and a scorecard

How to tell if a business idea is viable: unit economics, market size, affordable customer acquisition, competition and runway, with a quick viability scorecard.

By Ankush Derle7 min read
In this article
  1. Desirable, feasible, viable
  2. 1. Do the unit economics work?
  3. 2. Is the market big enough?
  4. 3. Can you reach customers affordably?
  5. 4. Does the competition leave room?
  6. 5. Can you survive until it works?
  7. A quick viability scorecard

“Viable” has a precise meaning that gets lost when people use it for “good”. A viable business idea is one that can make more money than it costs, for long enough to matter. An idea can be exciting, popular and technically possible, and still not be viable. This guide gives you the tests that separate the two.

Desirable, feasible, viable: three different tests

TestQuestionEvidence that answers it
DesirableDo customers want it?Conversations, pre-orders, search demand
FeasibleCan you build and deliver it?A prototype, supplier quotes, your skills
ViableWill it make money?Price, costs, customer acquisition cost, market size

Most failed businesses passed the first two and never honestly checked the third. The rest of this guide is about viability.

1. Do the unit economics work?

Take one sale and follow the money:

  • Price: what a customer pays, based on what competitors charge (see finding competitor pricing).
  • Cost to deliver: materials, hosting, payment fees, your time.
  • Gross margin: price minus cost to deliver.
  • Customer acquisition cost: what you spend in marketing and sales to win one customer.
  • Customer lifetime value: margin per month multiplied by how many months a customer stays.

A common rule of thumb for subscription businesses is that lifetime value should be at least three times acquisition cost. It is a rule of thumb, not a law, but if your numbers are nowhere near it, no amount of growth will fix the business.

2. Is the market big enough for your goals?

Viability depends on what you want. A business that supports one founder needs far fewer customers than one raising venture capital. Estimate bottom-up: how many customers could you realistically reach, multiplied by what each pays per year. The guide on estimating market size for a new product walks through it with free US data sources.

3. Can you reach customers affordably?

Many ideas fail here. Ask where your first hundred customers come from, specifically:

  • Do people search for the problem? Search is cheap once you rank.
  • Is there a community, marketplace or association where they gather?
  • Can one partner or distributor reach many of them at once?
  • If you need paid ads, is the cost per click affordable against your margin?

If the only answer is “paid ads” and the price is low, the idea is probably not viable yet.

4. Does the competition leave room?

Competition does not make an idea unviable, but it sets the price ceiling and the cost of acquiring customers. Check:

  • whether competitors are profitable or burning funding to win share,
  • whether there is a customer they underserve,
  • and whether your advantage is something they can copy in a month.

See is my startup idea too crowded?

5. Can you survive until it works?

An idea can be viable in year three and still kill the company in month eight. Estimate how long it takes to reach break-even and whether you have the savings, revenue or funding to get there. Free help is available: SCORE mentors and Small Business Development Centers review cash flow plans at no charge, and the SBA publishes guides to funding options.

A quick viability scorecard

QuestionViable signWarning sign
Margin per saleHealthy after all delivery costsThin or negative at your target price
Lifetime value vs acquisition costComfortably above 1:1, ideally around 3:1Below 1:1
Reachable customersEnough to hit your revenue goalRequires most of the market to buy
ChannelSearch, community or partnersPaid ads only, low price
RunwayLonger than time to break-evenShorter, with no funding plan

If most rows are in the warning column, change one variable (the customer, the price or the channel) and score again before you build. For the full pre-build checklist, use the business idea validation checklist.

Frequently asked questions

What makes a business idea viable?

It can make more money than it costs for long enough to matter: healthy margin per sale, customer lifetime value comfortably above acquisition cost, enough reachable customers and enough runway to get to break-even.

What is the difference between feasible and viable?

Feasible means you can build and deliver it. Viable means doing so makes money. Plenty of feasible ideas are not viable.

See your market, with the sources attached.

Describe your idea in one sentence. The Free plan includes one full research report a month with up to 5 competitors, no card required.